Cover not available

In:Research Methods in Complex Dynamic Systems Theory Approaches to Second Language Development
Edited by Wander Lowie, Rosmawati and Vanessa De Wilde
[Research Methods in Applied Linguistics 14] 2025
► pp. 102–120

Get fulltext from our e-platform
JBE logo with link
PDF logo with download linkDownload Book PDF
authorization required

Chapter 6
Using Granger Causality to investigate causes of change in L2 oral development

 | Ghent University
 | University of Zurich
 | KU Leuven
Published online: 11 September 2025
DOI logo with link
https://doi.org/10.1075/rmal.14.06dew
Abstract
Complex Dynamic Systems Theory (CDST) approaches to second language (L2) development have stressed that subsystems of language are intertwined (De Bot et al., 2007, Larsen-Freeman, 1997). A key challenge is accurately attributing causal explanations and determining suitable statistical methods to study relationships between linguistic processes, features, and forms within the CDST framework. In this chapter, we propose Granger Causality to investigate causes of change. This method quantitatively assesses to what extent one time series is dragging the other along, suggesting that one is causally prior to the other. We explored how this method can be used to assess whether certain aspects of linguistic complexity can induce change in others, thus serving as precursors or supporters in the relationship.
Article outline
  • Introduction
  • Granger Causality
  • Using Granger Causality in CDST approaches
    to second language development
  • The empirical study
    • Method
      • Dataset 1
        • Context of the study
        • Participants
        • Tasks and procedures
      • Dataset 2
        • Context of the study
        • Participants
        • Tasks and procedures
      • Complexity measures
      • Analysis
    • Results
    • Discussion of results
  • Affordances and challenges of the method
  • Conclusion
  • Note
  • References
References (50)
References
Bates, E., Dale, P. S., & Thal, D. (1996). Individual differences and their implications for theories of language development. In P. Fletcher & B. MacWhinney (Eds.), The handbook of child language (1st ed., pp. 95–151). Wiley. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Bates, E., & Goodman, J. C. (1999). On the emergence of grammar from lexicon. In B. MacWhinney (Ed.), The emergence of language (pp. 29–80). Lawrence Erlbaum AssociatesGoogle Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Berdicevskis, A., Coussé, E., Koplenig, A., & Adesam, Y. (2024). To drop or not to drop? Predicting the omission of the infinitival marker in a Swedish future construction. Corpus Linguistics and Linguistic Theory, 20(1), 219–261. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Caspi, T. (2010). A dynamic perspective on second language development (Thesis fully internal (DIV)). University of Groningen.
Caspi, T., & Lowie, W. (2010). A dynamic perspective on L2 lexical development in academic English. In R. Chacón-Beltrán, C. Abello-Contesse, & M. D. M. Torreblanca-López (Eds.), Insights into non-native vocabulary teaching and learning (Ch. 4., pp. 41–58). Multilingual Matters. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
(2013). The dynamics of L2 vocabulary development: A case study of receptive and productive knowledge. Revista Brasileira de Linguística Aplicada, 13, 437–462. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
De Bot, K., Lowie, W., & Verspoor, M. (2007). A Dynamic Systems Theory approach to second language acquisition. Bilingualism: Language and Cognition, 10(1), 7. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Dewaele, J. M. (2016). Why do so many bi-and multilinguals feel different when switching languages? International Journal of multilingualism, 13(1), 92–105. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
De Wilde, V. (2023). Lexical characteristics of young L2 English learners’ narrative writing at the start of formal instruction. Journal of Second Language Writing, 59, 100960. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
De Wilde, V., Brysbaert, M., & Eyckmans, J. (2020). Learning English through out-of-school exposure. Which levels of language proficiency are attained and which types of input are important? Bilingualism: Language and Cognition, 23(1), 171–185. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
De Wilde, V., & Lowie, W. (2024). The forest and the trees: Investigating groups and individuals in longitudinal second language English speaking development. Language Learning. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Epskamp, S., Waldorp, L. J., Mõttus, R., & Borsboom, D. (2018). The Gaussian graphical model in cross-sectional and time-series data. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 53(4), 453–480. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Freeborn, L., & Siepe, B. (2025). Unravelling the dynamics of language learning: Insights from Temporal Network Analysis. In W. Lowie, Rosmawathi, & V. de Wilde (Eds.), Research methods in Complex Dynamic Systems Theory approaches to second language development. John Bejamins. (this volume)Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Furnham, A. (2016). Rerum cognoscere causas: Dependent and independent variables in psychology. In R. Harré & F. M. Moghaddam (Eds.), Questioning causality. Scientific explorations of cause and consequence across social contexts (pp. 67–80). Praeger. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Goldschneider, J. M., & DeKeyser, R. M. (2001). Explaining the “Natural order of L2 morpheme acquisition” in English: A meta-analysis of multiple determinants. Language Learning, 51(1), 1–50. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Havron, N., Raviv, L., & Arnon, I. (2018). Literate and preliterate children show different learning patterns in an artificial language learning task. Journal of Cultural Cognitive Science, 2(1–2), 21–33. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Hill, A. B. (1965). The environment and disease: Association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58(5), 295–300. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Koplenig, A. (2017). Why the quantitative analysis of diachronic corpora that does not consider the temporal aspect of time-series can lead to wrong conclusions. Digital Scholarship in the Humanities, 32(1), 159–168. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Koplenig, A., & Müller-Spitzer, C. (2016). Population size predicts lexical diversity, but so does the mean sea level — Why it is important to correctly account for the structure of temporal data. PloS one, 11(3), e0150771. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Kovelman, I., Baker, S. A. & Petitto, L.–A. (2008). Age of first bilingual language exposure as a new window into bilingual reading development. Bilingualism: Language and Cognition, 11, 203–223. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Kyle, K. (2016). Measuring syntactic development in L2 writing: Fine grained indices of syntactic complexity and usage-based indices of syntactic sophistication (Doctoral Dissertation). Georgia State University.
Kyle, K., & Crossley, S. A. (2018). Measuring syntactic complexity in L2 writing using fine-grained clausal and phrasal indices. The Modern Language Journal, 102(2), 333–349. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Kyle, K., Crossley, S. A., & Jarvis, S. (2021). Assessing the validity of lexical diversity indices using direct judgements. Language Assessment Quarterly, 18(2), 154–170. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Larsen-Freeman, D. (1997). Chaos/complexity science and second language acquisition. Applied Linguistics, 18(2), 141–165. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Larsen-Freeman, D., & Cameron, L. (2008). Complex systems and Applied Linguistics. Oxford university press.Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Lowie, W. M., & Verspoor, M. H. (2019). Individual differences and the ergodicity problem. Language Learning, 69, 184–206. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Marchman, V. A., & Bates, E. (1994). Continuity in lexical and morphological development: A test of the critical mass hypothesis. Journal of Child Language, 21(2), 339–366. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
McCarthy, P. M., & Jarvis, S. (2010). MTLD, vocd-D, and HD-D: A validation study of sophisticated approaches to lexical diversity assessment. Behavior Research Methods, 42(2), 381–392. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Moscoso del Prado, F. (2014). Grammatical change begins within the word: Causal modeling of the co-evolution of Icelandic morphology and syntax. In Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (Vol. 36, No. 36).Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Ortega, L., & Byrnes, H. (2008). Theorizing advancedness, setting up the longitudinal research agenda. In L. Ortega & H. Byrnes (Eds.), The longitudinal study of advanced L2 capacities (pp. 281–299). RoutledgeGoogle Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Pfenninger, S. E. (2020). The dynamic multicausality of age of first bilingual language exposure: evidence from a longitudinal content and language integrated learning study with dense time serial measurements. The Modern Language Journal, 104(3), 662–686. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Pfenninger, S. E., De Wilde, V., & Kliesch, M. (under review). The ‘chicken or egg’ causality dilemma in SLA: Evidence from late life language learning. Manuscript submitted for publication.
R Core Team. (2023). R: A language and environment for statistical computing (R version 4.3. 1 (2023-06-16)). R Foundation for Statistical Computing.Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Rosemeyer, M., & Van de Velde, F. (2021). On cause and correlation in language change: Word order and clefting in Brazilian Portuguese. Language Dynamics and Change, 11(1), 130–166. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Schumann, J. H. (2015). Foreword. In Z. Dörnyei, P. MacIntyre, & A. Henry (Eds), Motivational dynamics in language learning (p. xv-xix). Multilingual Matters.Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Sigurðardóttir, Sigríður. (2024). Language forecasting with focus on variation and change within Icelandic (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Yale University.
Thelen, E. (2005). Dynamic Systems Theory and the complexity of change. Psychoanalytic Dialogues, 15(2), 255–283. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Thelen, E., & Smith, L. B. (1994). A dynamic systems approach to the development of cognition and action. The MIT Press. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Thurman, W. N., & Fisher, M. E. (1988). Chickens, eggs, and causality, or which came first? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 70(2), 237–238. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Van de Velde, F., & Petré, P. (2020). Historical linguistics. In S. Adolphsis (Ed.), The Routledge handbook of English language and digital humanities (pp. 328–359). Routledge. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Van den Bergh, H., & Evers–Vermeul, J. (2017). Validity issues in longitudinal research. In J. Evers–Vermeul & E. Tribushinina (Eds.), Usage-based approaches to language acquisition and language teaching (pp. 97–116). De Gruyter Mouton. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Van Dijk, M., Lowie, W., Smit, N., Verspoor, M., & van Geert, P. (2024). Complex Dynamic Systems Theory as a foundation for process-oriented research on second language development. Second Language Research. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Van Dijk, M., Verspoor, M. H., & Lowie, W. M. (2011). Variability analyses in language development. In A dynamic approach to second language development: Methods and techniques (pp. 55–84). John Benjamins. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Van Geert, P. (1991). A dynamic systems model of cognitive and language growth. Psychological Review, 98(1), 3. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Van Geert, P., & Verspoor, M. (2015). Dynamic systems and language development. In B. MacWhinney & W. O’Grady (Eds.), The handbook of language emergence. (pp. 537–556). Wiley-Blackwell. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Verspoor, M., Schmid, M. S., & Xu, X. (2012). A dynamic usage based perspective on L2 writing. Journal of Second Language Writing, 21(3), 239–263. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Verspoor, M., & Smiskova, H. (2012). Foreign language development from a dynamic usage-based perspective. In R. M. Manchón (Ed.), L2 writing development: Multiple perspectives (pp. 17–46). Walter de Gruyter. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Yu, H., & Lowie, W. (2020). Dynamic paths of complexity and accuracy in second language speech: a longitudinal case study of Chinese learners. Applied Linguistics, 41(6), 855–877. Google Scholar logo with link to Google Scholar
Zeileis, A., & Hothorn, T. (2002). Diagnostic checking in regression relationships. R News 2(3): 7–10. [URL]
Mobile Menu Logo with link to supplementary files background Layer 1 prag Twitter_Logo_Blue