On predicting contact-induced grammatical change

For good reasons, linguists are highly skeptical when it comes to predicting linguistic change. As has been argued in Heine (2003: 598–599), based on observations on some regularities of grammatical change made within the framework of grammaticalization theory, however, it seems possible to propose at least some probabilistic predictions on what is a possible grammatical change and what is not. In the present article it is argued that this also applies to grammatical change that takes place in situations of language contact. As more recent research has demonstrated (Heine & Kuteva 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010, Heine forthcoming), contact-induced grammatical change is essentially subject to the same principles of grammaticalization as grammatical change not induced by contact. The data analyzed in this article concern case marking in Slavic languages, more specifically expressions for comitative and instrumental participants.